Bosch Forecasts: 15 Major Trends for China's Auto Industry by 2026, Only 15 Automakers Likely to Survive Until 2030

China’s auto market reached sales of 34.4 million vehicles in 2025, yet intense price competition, high inventory levels, and mounting profitability pressures have signaled the end of the “era of volume growth.” Wu Yongqiao, President of Bosch Smart Driving Solutions China, noted that the industry’s main theme in 2026 will be “slowing down to seek stability.” By 2030, approximately 15 automakers are expected to remain in China’s market—comprising 5–6 state-owned enterprises, 5 private or foreign-invested companies, and 3–4 new-energy startups. The initial phase of the new-energy vehicle (NEV) transition has largely concluded, and future sales are projected to stabilize in a 4:4:2 ratio among battery electric vehicles (BEVs), hybrids, and internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Intelligent driving is accelerating its adoption, and starting in 2026, new models without smart-driving capabilities may struggle to become bestsellers. Level 3 (L3) autonomy is likely to serve only as a transitional technology, while commercial deployment of Level 4 (L4) remains constrained by regulatory and socio-economic factors. Moreover, the cost of intelligent driving systems for ICE vehicles is expected to fall below RMB 5,000 within three years, enabling “equal intelligence for both fuel-powered and electric vehicles.” AI-powered digital cockpits are set to enter their inaugural year in 2026, though privacy-protection regulations may lag behind by two to three years. Internationally, legacy brands are rapidly advancing their intelligent transformation and could re-enter the competitive arena by 2028. Meanwhile, Chinese automakers expanding overseas must shift from merely “going global” to truly “integrating locally,” addressing challenges related to local compliance requirements and divergent consumer preferences.