Tesla Q2 Global Deliveries Expected to Rise Nearly 5% YoY, Driven by European Market

A survey by market analytics firm Visible Alpha of 20 Wall Street analysts forecasts that Tesla will deliver 402,780 vehicles globally in the second quarter of 2024, representing a 4.9% year-over-year increase and a 12.5% sequential rise. The growth is primarily driven by stronger demand in Europe, where consumers are accelerating their shift to battery-electric vehicles amid rising fuel prices caused by Middle East conflicts. Deutsche Bank predicts Tesla’s European sales will surge nearly 40% year-over-year, while China sees modest growth of 3%, and North American deliveries decline by 21% year-over-year. U.S. sales face pressure mainly because the federal EV tax credit—offering up to $7,500 per vehicle under the previous administration—expired at the end of September 2023, dampening demand. Demand in China remains stable. Tesla plans to announce its Q2 vehicle delivery figures on July 2 but will not break down regional sales data. Earlier, Tesla’s European sales for 2025 had sharply declined due to consumer backlash against CEO Elon Musk’s political remarks, though the market is now gradually recovering. Additionally, Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) advanced driver-assistance system could further boost European orders. Currently, only a few European countries permit FSD on public roads, and the European Commission is expected to vote in the second half of 2024 on whether to allow broader deployment of the system. To stimulate sales, Tesla has rolled out lower-spec versions of the Model 3 and Model Y over the past year.