He Xiaopeng Predicts China's NEV Penetration to Exceed 90% by 2030

On July 2, at the Chinese debut launch event of the XPeng MONA L03, He Xiaopeng, Chairman of XPeng Motors, stated that over the past decade, new energy vehicles (NEVs) have made significant progress in replacing internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. He projected that by 2030, NEVs will account for more than 90% of China’s new vehicle market. He emphasized that the primary transformation in the automotive industry over the next decade will center on the deep integration of artificial intelligence (AI) and automobiles, with cars evolving into “robots on four wheels.” The core of this evolution lies in endowing vehicles with a “soul”—effectively coupling them with robotic intelligence—to enhance customer value. He stressed that the key to automotive transformation isn’t changes in appearance or price, but rather the shift toward intelligent, emotionally resonant mobility companions. Meanwhile, Li Bin, founder of NIO, also forecast that by 2030, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) alone will surpass 80% penetration in China’s new vehicle market, while overall NEV penetration will exceed 90%. Furthermore, BEVs will represent over 90% of all NEVs sold. According to data, national passenger vehicle retail sales in May 2024 reached 1.51 million units, down 22.1% year-over-year but up 9.2% month-over-month. The retail penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles hit a record high of 62.9% that month, reflecting how high fuel prices and shifting consumer preferences are accelerating the transition from ICE vehicles to electric alternatives.