Li Bin: EV Technology Path Converging on Battery Power, with Over 80% New Car Penetration Expected by 2030

At a media briefing following the launch event of the five-seat NIO ES8, Li Bin, founder, chairman, and CEO of NIO, stated that the technological trajectory of new energy vehicles (NEVs) is clearly converging toward battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and denying this trend would be akin to burying one’s head in the sand. He noted that although the overall auto market faced significant pressure in the first half of this year—with national passenger vehicle retail sales in June totaling 1.602 million units, down 23.2% year-over-year—BEVs were the only powertrain type to achieve year-over-year growth, rising by 3.6%. Li emphasized that market pressures affect all automakers equally, and no company can remain insulated from these challenges. Regarding the second-half market outlook, Li expressed cautious optimism, expecting the auto market to stabilize without further deepening declines. His assessment is based on two key factors: China’s continued growth in vehicle ownership, which sustains underlying demand for new purchases, and the upcoming launches of several competitive new models—including the five-seat ES8—which are poised to stimulate consumer interest in vehicle replacements. Additionally, at NIO Day 2026, Li previously forecast that by 2030, NEVs will account for over 90% of China’s new vehicle market, with BEVs representing more than 90% of all NEV sales—meaning BEVs alone will constitute over 80% of the total new vehicle market.