Natural Rubber Prices Hit Two-Year High as Tire Makers Rush to Raise Prices

In early September, domestic spot prices for natural rubber reached RMB 17,900 per ton, up approximately 14% from the beginning of the year and hitting a nearly two-year high. As of September 3, the front-month Shanghai rubber futures contract briefly surpassed RMB 18,800 per ton. Affected by rising raw material costs, tire manufacturers—including Michelin, Bridgestone, Zhongce Rubber, and Sailun Tires—have successively announced price increases since 2026, with most hikes ranging from 2% to 5%. The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) forecasts that global natural rubber production in 2026 will reach approximately 1.532 million tons, while consumption is expected to hit about 1.56 million tons, resulting in a supply-demand gap of roughly 280,000 tons—wider than in 2025. On the supply side, aging rubber trees in Thailand, the spread of leaf fall disease among rubber plantations in Indonesia, and an anticipated decline in output from Vietnam—combined with drought conditions in producing regions caused by the El Niño phenomenon—have clearly tightened supply. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions have led to tight supplies and record-high prices for butadiene, a key feedstock for synthetic rubber, prompting downstream users to shift toward natural rubber and further boosting demand.