China SAE Forecasts New Energy Passenger Vehicle Sales to Exceed 70% by 2030

At a press conference on June 3 for the 33rd Annual Conference and Exhibition of the China Society of Automotive Engineers (CSAE), Hou Fushen, Vice Chairman and Secretary-General of CSAE, stated that the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" period (2026–2030) will be a critical phase for China's automotive industry to transition from scale-driven expansion to comprehensive high-quality development. He projected that over the next five years, the industry will witness accelerated iteration of electrification technologies, digital and intelligent transformation spanning the entire industrial chain, and a profound reshaping of competitive and cooperative dynamics between Chinese and foreign automakers. By 2030, new energy vehicles (NEVs) are expected to account for more than 70% of passenger vehicle sales in China; L3 and L4 autonomous driving features will be equipped in over 35% of new passenger vehicles; and annual overseas sales of Chinese-made vehicles will reach approximately 10 million units, with internationalization emerging as a key growth driver for high-quality industry development. Previously, Su Bo, former Vice Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), also forecast that by 2030, NEVs would exceed a 70% market penetration rate domestically, suggesting China’s goal of becoming a global leader in new energy vehicles could be achieved ahead of schedule. Additionally, in January this year, UBS’s China electric vehicle analyst noted that if current trends continue, Chinese EVs could capture roughly one-third of the global market share by 2030.