Musk Claims Tesla Robotaxi Will Double Monthly—Critics Cry "Pie in the Sky"

During Tesla's Q4 2025 earnings call, Elon Musk claimed that the Robotaxi fleet had already deployed over 500 vehicles in the San Francisco Bay Area and Austin, and would "double every month." However, Electrek reported that third-party data indicates the actual fleet size is only around 200 vehicles, with operations heavily restricted in both cities: in San Francisco, vehicles require safety drivers and are limited to internal employee use, while Austin’s driverless testing has already been suspended. If Musk’s projection holds true, the fleet would reach 2.048 million vehicles within a year—far exceeding Tesla’s current annual production capacity of approximately 2 million vehicles. Even if Tesla were to mobilize all its Full Self-Driving (FSD) subscription users (currently 1.1 million), it would still fall short of this target. Moreover, Tesla has acknowledged that entering new cities requires extensive local calibration—a stance that contradicts its earlier assertion that rapid expansion could be achieved solely through software updates. Analysts argue that exponential growth under current conditions is virtually impossible.