Tesla Cuts 2026 Sales Forecast Again as Deliveries Post Biggest Annual Drop in History

On March 26, Tesla released its second "Sell-Side Analyst Expectations Compilation," revising its 2026 electric vehicle (EV) delivery forecast downward from 1.75 million units to 1.689 million units. Deliveries in the first quarter of 2026 totaled 365,600 vehicles, a 12.6% decline compared to the previous quarter. Full-year 2025 deliveries reached 1.6361 million units, down 8.6% year-over-year—the steepest drop in company history and marking the second consecutive annual decline. Revenue for 2025 totaled $94.827 billion (down 3%), net profit was $3.794 billion (down 46%), and automotive revenue declined by 10%. Notably, Wedbush and Oppenheimer were removed from the analyst list, while JPMorgan and four other new firms joined. Despite pressure on its EV business, Tesla’s energy storage segment delivered strong performance: installations in 2025 reached 46.7 GWh (+48.7%), and Q4 revenue from energy products hit $3.837 billion (+25%). The market is closely watching whether Tesla can successfully pivot through its AI, autonomous driving, and robotics initiatives, though EVs remain its primary source of cash flow in the near term.