From：Internet Info Agency 2019-03-15 16:11:39
In the first two months of this year, China's auto market continued to slump, down 14.9% year-on-year. Passenger vehicles were sold 3.337 million units, down 9.7% year-on-year. In the downturn of the automobile market, the luxury car market, which maintained steady growth in sales, also declined for the first time, with a drop of 3.0%. At the same time, the dealer inventory index recorded a new high, above the warning line. Even though the price of luxury cars has rebounded, the hidden danger behind it still worrying. The decline in the luxury car market has made the Chinese auto market in 2019 more confusing.
Compared with the same period of the previous year, the cumulative sales in February and January and the monthly sales of February reached the lowest point. According to data released by China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), passenger vehicles were sold 1.17 million units last month, a decline of 18.7%. Among them, mainstream joint-venture brands fell 13.1% year-on-year, Chinese brands fell the most, reaching 27.2%. The long-term positive growth of the luxury car segment also saw the first sales decline, a decrease of 3.0%.
The luxury car market sees negative growth
After the first negative growth in China's auto market in 2018, luxury cars were able to stand out in the passenger car market. The total annual sales volume was 2.815 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%. The luxury car market began to suffer as the auto market continued to slump.
The Mercedes-Benz brand, which grew at a high speed, and the Volvo and Cadillac brands in the second camp all experienced different sales declines. Among them, ever fastest-growing medium and large-sized sedan represented by the Mercedes-Benz E-Class, the BMW 5 Series, and the Audi A6 also showed declines markedly. The decline of the Volvo XC60, the Cadillac XT5 and the Land Rover Discovery Sport even reached more than 40%. Under this circumstance, there are predictions that the growth rate of the luxury car market is more likely to decline this year, and the second-tier luxury brands will be the first to suffer.
The inventory index reached the highest point in ten months
Affected by the sharp decline in sales in the automobile market, the dealers' stock-to-sales ratio and their inventory increased. Before the Spring Festival in February, manufacturers relieved the pressure on dealers by slowing down the production pace, and carried out activities such as pre-holiday promotions. The inventory index fell to 1.40 in January which was below the warning line.
According to a survey conducted in February, the dealer's comprehensive inventory index was 2.1, up 29% year-on-year and 50% month-on-month. The inventory index of high-end luxury & imported brands rose significantly, reaching 1.88, up 55% over the previous month, reaching the highest point of the inventory index in the past ten months. Among them, Jaguar Land Rover and Cadillac's inventory in February exceeded two months, and the inventory index was 2.96 and 2.59 respectively. In addition, the intention of some brands to cut inventory has led to further increase pressure in dealer inventory.
The reason behind the rebound in the price index
As the automobile market slumps and the dealer inventory index increases, “price-for-quantity” will become a market strategy for some enterprises.
According to the China Passenger Vehicle Price Index released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), the passenger vehicle market price index fell by 0.8%, the mainstream vehicle market price index fell by 1.2%, and the luxury vehicle market price index rose by 0.7%. In comparison, luxury vehicle market has performed well under the domestic consumption upgrade. However, the CAAM analyzed that the market share of the Mercedes-Benz E-class, which was priced relatively high, increased this month, while the Lexus ES and Audi A6L market share fell, making the overall market price index rise. However, the price index for luxury compact SUVs and large luxury SUVs is declining.
In 2018, the average transaction price of the domestic luxury car market increased. Driven by a number of new cars’ launching and sales growth, the average price of luxury cars was 412,000 yuan, up by 0.34 million yuan over the same period last year. The proportion of luxury cars in the passenger car market rose to 12.5%, an increase of 1.7 percentage point. Whether the luxury car market can maintain the stable performance this year and whether the decline in sales is a joint reaction to the further expansion of the cold winter in the auto market, or it is affected by the time of the season, the result still depends on the data of the next few months. Meanwhile, changes in market growth, inventory index, and price index will also be important reference values for market expectation.
Whether the luxury car market can break through 3 million units of sales volume in 2019 is even more worth looking forward to.
