Lithium Carbonate Prices Soar Past ¥150,000/Ton, Pressuring EV Costs

On January 12, the main lithium carbonate futures contract surged to its daily trading limit, closing at RMB 156,060 per ton—the highest level in nearly a year. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate reached RMB 153,400 per ton, soaring by RMB 13,800 in a single day. This rally is likely linked to adjustments in China’s export tax rebate policy for lithium-ion batteries: the reduction in the VAT refund rate has prompted downstream enterprises to stock up ahead of schedule, intensifying market supply-demand tightness. Li Liangbin, Chairman of Ganfeng Lithium, previously forecast that if demand growth exceeds 30% by 2026, lithium prices could surpass RMB 150,000—and potentially even reach RMB 200,000—per ton. In the short term, a broad-based price increase across electric vehicles (EVs) remains unlikely, though corporate profit margins will come under pressure. If lithium prices remain elevated over the long term, price hikes for mid- to low-end EV models may become unavoidable.