Lithium Carbonate Futures Hit Limit Down at RMB 150,000/Ton; Short-Term Volatility Doesn’t Dampen Long-Term Optimism

On March 3, the front-month lithium carbonate futures contract hit the daily trading limit down, plunging 13% to close at RMB 150,860 per tonne. The sharp decline was primarily driven by weakening expectations of an export ban on lithium ores from Zimbabwe, which triggered a wave of long-position liquidations. Compounding the pressure, heightened tensions in the Middle East pushed up the U.S. dollar index, prompting capital outflows from the new energy sector and further dampening market sentiment. Despite near-term price pressures, global supply and demand for lithium carbonate are both projected to grow in tandem by 2026, underpinned by robust demand from electric vehicle batteries and energy storage applications. Analysts forecast that prices will fluctuate within a range of RMB 120,000–200,000 per tonne throughout the year. Industry experts view this correction as normal market volatility and believe that, over the long term, lithium carbonate will maintain a virtuous cycle with the new energy vehicle industry as production capacity expands alongside rising demand.