Surging Oil Prices Drive Global EV Sales Surge as Chinese Automakers Accelerate Overseas Expansion

On April 9, light sweet crude oil futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $97.87 per barrel, up 3.66%. June Brent crude futures in London settled at $95.92 per barrel, rising 1.23%. Recent geopolitical tensions—including disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, attacks on Saudi oil facilities, and reduced Middle Eastern supply—have driven international oil prices sharply higher, from below $70 three weeks ago to above $90. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that Middle Eastern production cuts will reach 9.1 million barrels per day in April, while global demand growth slows to just 600,000 barrels per day. The widening diesel supply-demand gap has prompted the EIA to raise its 2026 Brent crude price forecast to an average of $96 per barrel. In the near term, oil prices are expected to fluctuate within the $90–$100 range; if tensions persist or escalate further, prices could surpass $100. High oil prices are significantly reshaping global automotive consumption patterns. According to Germany’s Federal Motor Transport Authority (KBA), battery electric vehicle (BEV) registrations in Germany reached 70,663 units in March 2024, surging 66.2% year-over-year and surpassing gasoline-powered cars for the first time (66,959 units, down 4.9% YoY). Chinese brands stood out: BYD and Leapmotor saw registration volumes grow more than threefold year-over-year, while XPeng’s registrations more than doubled. Meanwhile, diesel prices in Germany hit a record high of €2.50 per liter in March, with E10 gasoline averaging around €2.24 per liter—both all-time highs. Although the German government limited fuel stations to adjusting prices only once per day at noon, this measure failed to curb the upward trend. In the United States, the national average gasoline price stood at $4.14 per gallon on April 7, up over 21% from a month earlier. According to nonprofit organization Coltura, U.S. gasoline prices have risen more than 30% since late February, enabling EV owners to save an average of $1,805 annually on fuel and maintenance costs. New vehicle deliveries in the U.S. fell 14% year-over-year in March, with major automakers—including General Motors, Toyota, and Ford—reporting broad-based sales declines. In Australia, fuel costs have reached four times the cost of electricity for EVs. BYD’s Melbourne showroom reported record monthly sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in March. In Italy, Leapmotor topped the pure EV market in March with 5,513 vehicle registrations—a staggering 2,827% year-over-year increase—and captured a 33.5% market share in Q1. Even in oil-producing Azerbaijan, Chinese NEVs have begun entering taxi fleets. Chinese automakers are accelerating their global expansion. BYD has raised its 2024 overseas sales target from 1.3 million to 1.5 million units and plans to start building ultra-fast charging stations abroad beginning in 2027. In the first two months of 2024, China exported 583,000 NEVs, up over 110% year-over-year. Chery exported 243,000 vehicles (+45.6%), and Geely exported 156,000 units (+150%). In the UK, Chery’s Jaecoo 7 SUV became the best-selling model in March, priced at approximately £30,000. Chery has acquired Nissan’s former Barcelona plant in Spain through a joint venture, targeting annual production capacity of 200,000 vehicles by 2029, and is also considering leveraging existing manufacturing capacity in France and other regions for further expansion. Chinese automakers are shifting their overseas strategy from simple product exports toward localized production and industrial ecosystem exports. BYD now outsells Tesla in 22 countries and regions, and its Hungarian factory is expected to begin operations in 2026. Automakers are also diversifying powertrain strategies: beyond BEVs, hybrid and plug-in hybrid models are gaining traction in markets with insufficient charging infrastructure. Great Wall Motor’s comprehensive powertrain portfolio helped China become Australia’s largest source of imported vehicles for the first time in February 2024. Financial data shows that in 2024, BYD’s overseas business achieved a gross margin of 19.46%, higher than its domestic margin of 16.66%. Overseas revenue accounted for nearly 40% of total revenue, contributing to a net profit of RMB 32.62 billion. The company aims for long-term parity between domestic and international sales—50% each. Industry analysts note that even if oil prices retreat in the future, ongoing investments in charging infrastructure and supportive policies driven by energy security concerns will continue to underpin long-term EV growth globally.