CAAM Forecasts China Auto Sales to Hit 34.75 Million Units by 2026, with NEV Share Rising Steadily

On January 14, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) released a forecast predicting that China's total vehicle sales will reach 34.75 million units in 2026, an increase of 1% year-on-year. Passenger vehicle sales are expected to reach approximately 30.25 million units (+0.5%), while commercial vehicle sales are projected at 4.5 million units (+4.7%). New energy vehicles (NEVs) will continue their strong performance, with sales expected to hit 19 million units—a significant year-on-year increase of 15.2%—accounting for over 50% of total new vehicle sales and solidifying their position as the dominant force in the market. In terms of exports, China’s total vehicle exports for 2026 are forecast to reach 7.4 million units (+4.3%), including 2.615 million NEV exports. In 2025, China produced and sold 34.531 million and 34.4 million vehicles respectively, maintaining its position as the world’s largest automobile market for the 17th consecutive year. The commercial vehicle segment also showed a robust recovery, with both production and sales surpassing the 4-million-unit mark again.