Citi Cuts European Automakers' Profit Forecasts Amid Slumping Sales and Chinese Brands Nearing 10% Market Share

According to a recent Citigroup report, European automakers’ sales in Europe could decline by 2% in 2024, weighed down by heightened consumer financial stress and persistently high vehicle prices. Meanwhile, Chinese brands are accelerating their expansion, with their market share in Europe expected to approach 10% this year. European carmakers continue to grapple with the challenge of selling electric vehicles at high prices but low margins. Citigroup has revised downward its 2026 earnings forecasts for several automakers: Stellantis’ EBIT margin is now projected at 2.5%, down from 3.1%, with European sales forecast at 2.48 million units; Volkswagen’s margin has been lowered to 4.9%, with global sales expected to reach approximately 9 million units; Renault’s European sales are projected at 2.63 million units, with an EBIT margin of 5.4%, while its global sales are expected to remain largely flat.