Global EV Sales to Hit 23.4 Million in 2026, Growth Slowing to 14%

According to the latest report from TrendForce, global new energy vehicle (NEV) sales—including battery electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles—are projected to reach 20.53 million units in 2025, a 26% year-over-year increase. Sales are expected to rise further to 23.4 million units in 2026, though the annual growth rate will moderate to 14%. China will remain the dominant market, accounting for approximately 66% of global sales, with its NEV sales growth forecast at 24% in 2025. Meanwhile, Western Europe is set to achieve nearly 30% growth—the highest since 2022. On the policy front, China will shift its NEV subsidies in 2026 from fixed amounts to a percentage-based model tied to vehicle prices. The U.S. is considering eliminating federal EV tax credits, while Germany has reinstated purchase incentives without restrictions on vehicle origin—a move that benefits Chinese EV exports. Additionally, July 1, 2024, marks a critical deadline for the renegotiation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). An abrupt U.S. withdrawal could disrupt North American automotive supply chains. Although rising memory chip prices are exerting cost pressure on intelligent EVs, their relatively low share of total vehicle costs (1%–5%) means automakers are prioritizing stable component supply to ensure timely new model launches.