Analysts Cut Tesla's 2024 Sales Forecast to 1.69 Million Units

Recently, analysts from multiple investment banks have broadly lowered their 2024 sales forecasts for Tesla. According to a summary on Tesla’s official website compiling estimates from 23 analysts, the company is now expected to deliver approximately 1.69 million electric vehicles this year—down from the 1.75 million projected in December last year. Of this total, Model 3 and Model Y are forecast to account for about 1.624 million units, while Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck combined are expected to contribute roughly 61,000 units. Despite the downward revision, this figure remains slightly above Tesla’s actual deliveries of 1.64 million vehicles in 2023. First-quarter deliveries are projected to reach 365,000 units, an 8.6% year-over-year increase. Analysts note that Tesla has faced weak demand for two consecutive years, compounded by production slowdowns due to the Model Y refresh and boycotts sparked by CEO Elon Musk’s political remarks, which could further temper the pace of recovery. Institutions participating in these forecasts include Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and UBS. Tesla emphasized that these figures represent external projections only and do not reflect the company’s official stance.