Middle East Tensions Push Oil Above $110 as Chinese EV Exports Surge

International oil prices rebounded above $110 per barrel on April 4 amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. According to a JPMorgan report, if disruptions to oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz persist until mid-May, crude prices could surge past $150 per barrel, with short-term levels potentially reaching $120–$130. Rising oil prices are influencing global automotive consumer choices. Since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran on February 28, gasoline prices in Germany have risen by nearly 20%, while diesel prices have surged over 30%. Data from Germany’s largest online automotive marketplace shows that if high oil prices persist, 43% of respondents would consider switching to electric vehicles (EVs). In the first half of March, inquiries for used EVs on the platform jumped 66% month-over-month. EV dealers in Poland also reported a noticeable uptick in market demand starting in March. In Thailand—a country heavily reliant on crude oil imports—diesel prices rose by approximately 30% in March. Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul has switched to driving a BYD all-electric vehicle and publicly urged citizens to try EVs. BYD reported overseas sales of 119,591 vehicles in March, up 65.2% year-over-year. Chairman Wang Chuanfu noted that daily sales in markets such as Australia, New Zealand, and the Philippines now equal what previously took two weeks to achieve. In the first quarter of 2025, BYD’s cumulative overseas sales reached 319,751 units, also a 65.2% year-over-year increase, with overseas sales accounting for 45.6% of total volume—double the share compared to the same period in 2024. The Middle East has become a key growth region for BYD. In January–February 2026, the company’s top ten export destinations for passenger vehicles included the UAE, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. In 2025, China exported 1.39 million vehicles to the Middle East, with Chinese brands capturing over 28% market share in the UAE alone.