China's Auto Imports Keep Shrinking as Exports Surpass Imports by Over 27 Times

From January to March 2026, China imported 100,000 vehicles, up 3% year-on-year. In March alone, imports totaled 28,000 units, down 12.6% month-on-month and 28.9% year-on-year. The corresponding import value amounted to USD 1.17 billion, a decline of 20.7% month-on-month and 39.6% year-on-year. Meanwhile, China exported 2.34 million vehicles in the first quarter, surging 53% year-on-year; March exports reached 790,000 units, up 39% year-on-year. Monthly exports were approximately 27 times higher than imports. Since peaking at 1.43 million units in 2014, China’s auto imports have been on a continuous downward trajectory—falling to 700,000 units in 2024 (down 12% YoY) and further declining to 480,000 units in 2025 (down 32% YoY). This trend persisted into Q1 2026, with the drop in March’s import value outpacing the decline in volume, indicating a shift toward lower average prices for imported models. Among source countries, Japan ranked first in Q1 with cumulative imports of 52,382 units, followed closely by Germany, Slovakia, and the United States. In terms of brands, Lexus sold 184,000 vehicles in China in 2025, up 2% year-on-year—making it the only imported luxury brand to achieve positive growth and retaining its position as the top-selling imported luxury marque. Meanwhile, domestic-brand passenger vehicle sales hit 1.632 million units in March, capturing a 67.7% market share—an increase of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year. In the premium segment (vehicles priced above RMB 500,000), Chinese brands saw Q1 sales surge 97% year-on-year, commanding a 69.5% market share. All top 11 best-selling large SUVs were domestically produced, led by the NIO ES8 with 47,000 units, followed by the Li Auto L9, AITO M8/M9, and Zeekr 9X. Domestically produced vehicles now hold advantages over similarly priced imports in key technological areas such as intelligent cockpits, urban navigation-assisted driving, and 800V high-voltage platforms. Consumer purchasing logic is shifting from “origin-driven” to “experience-driven.” Multinational automakers are accelerating localized R&D in China: Volkswagen has established its first global end-to-end new energy vehicle R&D and testing center in Hefei, committing EUR 3.5 billion over five years; around 70% of BMW’s Neue Klasse operating system source code is being developed by its Chinese team, integrating features like AutoNavi maps and HarmonyOS ecosystem compatibility; Audi is collaborating with Huawei on the Qiankun Smart Driving system; and Mercedes-Benz’s China team is leading development of its intelligent systems. Looking ahead, the imported vehicle market is expected to continue shrinking, stabilizing at around 200,000 units annually within the next three to five years—accounting for just 1–2% of the total market—and focusing primarily on ultra-luxury and niche segments. On the export front, China shipped 371,000 new energy vehicles (NEVs) in March 2026, up 130% year-on-year; Q1 NEV exports totaled 954,000 units, up 120% year-on-year. Full-year exports are projected to exceed 8 million units, including 3.5 million NEVs. Key destinations include Russia (187,000 units), Brazil (167,000 units), the UK (109,000 units), and the UAE (107,000 units), reflecting a balanced strategy targeting both emerging and developed markets. In response to overseas trade barriers and geopolitical risks, Chinese automakers are advancing a “full-industry-chain globalization” strategy. Companies like BYD and Chery have already built plants in Thailand, Brazil, Hungary, and Indonesia, with plans to expand manufacturing bases to Spain and other regions.