Changan Auto Executive Forecasts 65% BEV, 35% PHEV Share in China's Future Auto Market

On July 16, at a media briefing, Yang Dayong, Executive Vice President of Changan Automobile, shared his views on technological pathways in the automotive industry. He stated that battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) will become the dominant market segments in the future, with projected market shares of 65% and 35%, respectively. Yang noted that conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles currently bear taxes and fees—such as vehicle and vessel tax, purchase tax, and road maintenance fees—that amount to approximately 35% of fuel prices, whereas electric vehicles have not yet shouldered comparable costs. He estimated that if EVs were required in the future to assume equivalent social responsibilities, their per-kilometer operating cost would rise from the current home-charging rate of about RMB 0.075 to roughly RMB 0.275. If public charging is used, the cost could exceed RMB 0.30 per kilometer. By comparison, under the same tax and fee structure, HEVs would see their per-kilometer cost approach RMB 0.30, essentially matching that of EVs. He also pointed out that traditional ICE vehicles, along with plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and range-extended electric vehicles (REEVs), face significant pressure under a weight-based taxation system due to their dual powertrain setups and heavier battery packs. In the first half of this year, ICE vehicle sales declined faster than expected, partly due to fluctuations in fuel prices.