UBS Forecasts Chinese EVs to Capture 30% of Global Market by 2030

UBS analysts recently forecast that if current trends continue, Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) could capture approximately one-third of the global market share by 2030. Currently, overseas sales already account for 20% of total sales by Chinese automakers, with some companies generating as much as 50% of their profits from international markets. Despite challenges such as slowing adoption in Europe and trade barriers, Chinese brands are accelerating their global expansion. Leveraging first-mover advantages in electrification, vertical integration, and supply chain capabilities, Chinese automakers not only enjoy lower costs but also demonstrate stronger production scalability and responsiveness. UBS projects that Volkswagen and Toyota’s combined market share in key global markets will decline from 81% to 58%, while Tesla’s share is expected to rise from 2% to 8%. Additionally, automakers like BYD and Great Wall have already established manufacturing plants in countries such as Thailand, Brazil, and Hungary to drive localized production. UBS emphasized that China dominates the global EV supply chain, and its early strategic positioning will translate into a significant competitive edge during industry consolidation.