Tesla FSD Supervised Hits 10 Billion Miles; Full Self-Driving Still Delayed

Tesla’s supervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) fleet has surpassed 10 billion miles (approximately 16.093 billion kilometers) of cumulative driving, reaching the data threshold previously set by CEO Elon Musk as necessary to achieve unsupervised autonomous driving. Data shows that the fleet’s average daily mileage increased from around 14 million miles at the beginning of the year to approximately 29 million miles by late April. Despite achieving this data milestone, Tesla has yet to launch Level 4 unsupervised autonomous driving. Musk originally aimed to roll out the feature by the end of 2025 but acknowledged in January 2026 that he had failed to meet this commitment, pushing the target back to no earlier than Q4 2026—subject to multiple caveats. He had previously revised the required data volume upward several times, including raising it from 6 billion to 10 billion miles. Tesla claims that with supervised FSD engaged, the fleet experiences one serious collision per 5.3 million miles driven—significantly lower than the U.S. national average for human drivers, which stands at one such incident per 660,000 miles. However, industry experts note that Tesla’s accident reporting methodology differs from that of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), introducing potential bias into the comparison. Moreover, as of February 2026, Tesla’s autonomous taxi fleet in Austin had logged approximately 800,000 miles and reported 14 crashes to NHTSA—an accident rate about four times higher than that of human drivers under similar urban driving conditions. In contrast, Waymo—which already operates commercially at Level 4 autonomy—has recorded a 90% lower rate of severe injuries and an 82% lower rate of airbag-deployment incidents over its 127 million miles of autonomous driving compared to human-driven vehicles. Waymo assumes legal liability for its autonomous driving behavior, whereas Tesla’s current FSD system does not. Tesla continues to leverage its millions of active vehicles to collect real-world driving data, giving it a significant scale advantage in autonomous driving training. However, the accumulation of 10 billion miles has not definitively answered when—or if—its system will truly be capable of fully taking over driving responsibilities. Over the past decade, none of Musk’s repeatedly announced timelines for deploying autonomous driving have materialized as promised.