Chinese Automakers Accelerate European Expansion, Eyeing 16% Market Share by 2030

According to a global automotive industry outlook report released by AlixPartners, Chinese automakers such as BYD, Chery, and SAIC’s MG are accelerating their entry into the European market despite facing tariff barriers. Their combined market share in Europe is projected to reach 16% by 2030. Data shows that in May 2024, new vehicle sales in Europe rose 3.4% year-over-year to 1.13 million units. Sales of Chinese brands surged 97% year-over-year to 121,030 units, capturing a record-high market share of 10.7%. Amid intensifying domestic competition and slowing sales growth at home, Chinese automakers are increasingly viewing overseas expansion as a key growth avenue. Europe has emerged as a critical target market due to its stringent emissions regulations, well-developed charging infrastructure, and strong demand for electric vehicles. Currently, Chinese automakers are shifting their export focus from Russia and Belarus toward Western European countries such as France and Germany. A survey indicates that among Germans aged 18 to 34, 36% now prefer Chinese cars over domestic brands. To better align with local market demands, Chinese automakers are adopting a “produce locally, sell locally” strategy, expanding overseas vehicle assembly capacity through partnerships. AlixPartners forecasts that Chinese automakers’ overseas vehicle production capacity will increase from 1.2 million units in 2025 to 3.4 million units by 2030. Meanwhile, numerous European auto plants are operating below 60% capacity utilization, resulting in a total idle annual capacity of 2.5 million vehicles—drawing interest from multiple Chinese automakers seeking to establish operations there. Some European automakers are also proactively pursuing collaborations with Chinese companies. Nissan plans to produce vehicles for Chery at its Sunderland plant in the UK, while Volkswagen Group has stated that partnering with Chinese automakers like SAIC, FAW, and XPeng on co-production is a pragmatic choice. Additionally, AlixPartners predicts that China’s total vehicle exports will rise from 7.1 million units in 2025 to at least 10 million units by 2030.