Tesla Q2 2026 Deliveries Forecast at 406,000, Up 12% Sequentially

Tesla released the market consensus estimate for its second-quarter deliveries on June 28, 2026. This figure—406,024 vehicles—was compiled by Tesla’s Investor Relations team based on forecasts from 21 analysts and represents a 12% increase compared to the first quarter of 2026. Of this total, Model 3 and Model Y are expected to account for 392,662 deliveries, while other models—including Cybertruck, Model S/X, and the Semi electric truck—are projected to contribute 12,978 units. It should be noted that this projection is not Tesla’s official delivery figure but rather a reference point. If Tesla meets this expectation, its Q2 2026 deliveries would be slightly below the 410,831 vehicles delivered in the same period of 2025. The relatively high deliveries in Q2 2025 were primarily driven by the impending expiration of U.S. federal EV tax credits and generous subsidies in multiple countries. In contrast, with EV incentives winding down globally in 2026, delivering roughly the same volume as the prior-year quarter is viewed as a positive signal. Additionally, based on aggregated forecasts from 17 institutions, Tesla’s energy storage deployments for Q2 2026 are expected to reach 13.8 GWh, up 36% sequentially from 8.8 GWh in Q1. This growth is largely attributed to the near-full ramp-up of Tesla’s Megapack factory in Shanghai and the commissioning of new production lines in the United States. Historically, Q1 tends to be a low point for energy storage deployments due to government fiscal budget cycles in various countries. Tesla plans to announce its actual Q2 2026 delivery numbers around July 2, 2026, followed by its official earnings report after the U.S. market close on July 22. Historical data shows that the consensus analyst estimate typically deviates from Tesla’s actual deliveries by only a few percentage points.