China's Auto Exports to Surpass 10 Million by 2026, Led by New Energy Vehicles

According to forecasts by consulting firms, China’s automobile exports are projected to reach 10 million units in 2026, a 41% year-on-year increase, potentially making China the first country globally to surpass the 10-million-unit annual export milestone—approximately 2.5 times Japan’s annual export volume at that time. Data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers shows that from January to May 2024, China exported a total of 4.05 million vehicles, up 63% year-on-year; among these, new energy vehicle (NEV) exports reached 1.83 million units, surging 110% year-on-year, significantly outpacing the 36% growth rate for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Amid rising global demand for NEVs—driven by factors such as heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushing up oil prices—China’s domestic new vehicle sales are expected to decline by 10% year-on-year to 24.6 million units in 2026. In response, Chinese automakers are accelerating their expansion into overseas markets, with a particular focus on Europe. Chinese brands are forecast to capture a 10% market share in Europe by 2025, rising further to 16% by 2030. Currently, multiple Chinese automakers have expedited their entry into markets like Germany and France and are advancing localized production overseas. Against the backdrop of potential EU tariff hikes, companies including Chery, Dongfeng, and BYD have already established joint-venture plants or manufacturing bases in Europe. By 2030, the overseas production capacity of China’s major automakers is expected to reach approximately 3.4 million units, an 1.8-fold increase compared to 2025.