Solid-State Batteries Accelerate Deployment but Remain in Early Development, Experts Say

According to estimates, the market size for all-solid-state battery equipment is projected to reach RMB 59.216 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 103% from 2024 to 2030. Supported by favorable policies and driven by enterprises across the entire industrial chain, research and development as well as strategic deployment of solid-state batteries have significantly accelerated. Upstream material suppliers such as Ronbay Technology, ENJET New Energy Materials, and Tinci Materials have continuously made breakthroughs in electrolytes, separators, and anode materials, with some products already entering customer validation phases. Among midstream battery manufacturers, CATL expects to begin small-scale mass production of solid-state batteries in 2027 and achieve larger-scale production around 2030. Farasis Energy has completed development of its second-generation sulfide-based all-solid-state battery technology, achieving an energy density of 500 Wh/kg. Gotion High-Tech has unveiled its Jinshi all-solid-state battery with an energy density exceeding 400 Wh/kg, which has passed stringent safety tests including nail penetration and high-temperature oven trials. Tianqi Lithium plans to launch a new lithium sulfide product by the end of 2025, claiming it can reduce costs to 60% of the current industry average. Downstream automakers are also actively engaging in this field. BYD plans to initiate pilot installations of all-solid-state batteries in vehicles in 2027 and scale up applications after 2030. Dongfeng Motor has established an independently controllable solid-state battery supply chain, enabling vehicle ranges exceeding 1,000 kilometers. Changan Automobile expects to begin large-scale vehicle integration validation in 2026 and gradually ramp up production in 2027. GAC Group aims to equip its Hyper series vehicles with all-solid-state batteries starting in 2026. Additionally, non-traditional battery companies such as Golden Dragon Group and Guosheng Technology have also entered the solid-state battery sector. Despite rapid progress, industry experts caution that solid-state batteries remain in the early transition phase from laboratory R&D toward industrialization. Associate Professor Yang Shengbing from Wuhan University of Technology noted that current pilot production runs and vehicle trials are primarily aimed at accumulating experience for future large-scale manufacturing, and it may take until 2030 or even later before solid-state batteries meet the mature mass-production standards currently achieved by lithium-ion batteries. Industrialization faces multiple challenges: First, high costs—high-quality lithium sulfide and solid electrolytes cost between RMB 4–5 million per ton, far exceeding the RMB 0.17–0.2 million per ton price range of lithium carbonate. Second, significant technical barriers—the operation of all-solid-state cells requires maintaining pressure environments at the megapascal level. Third, there is no unified standard yet among the three mainstream technological pathways (sulfides, oxides, and polymers). Fourth, although progress has been made, critical technical issues such as “solid–solid interfacial contact” remain unresolved. Experts emphasize that the true “year zero” of industrialization will only arrive once tens of thousands of vehicles are equipped with solid-state batteries at scale. Current installation validations do not equate to commercial mass production. Lithium-ion batteries will remain dominant in the new energy vehicle sector for the foreseeable future. While solid-state batteries represent a clear long-term direction, their technological iteration and practical implementation will still require considerable time.