Ouyang Minggao Predicts: PHEVs and Range-Extended EVs in Decline; BEVs to Dominate 90% of Market by 2040

At the High-Level Forum on Intelligent and Electric Vehicle Development held in April 2026, Professor Ouyang Minggao of Tsinghua University stated that plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and range-extended electric vehicles have already entered a phase of decline ahead of schedule. Based on assessments of technological efficiency, energy structure, and industrial trends, he emphasized that battery electric vehicles (BEVs)—as the pathway with the highest utilization rate of green electricity—are twice as energy-efficient as hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and four times as efficient as synthetic-fuel internal combustion engine vehicles. Reviewing the development trajectory of China’s new energy vehicle (NEV) industry, Ouyang highlighted that the strategic decision in 2009 to adopt pure electric drive was pivotal in enabling China’s automotive sector to “overtake on a new track.” Subsequent policy support, technological breakthroughs (such as lithium iron phosphate blade batteries), and market cultivation led NEVs through three distinct phases: product introduction (2010–2014), industrial growth (2015–2020), and market explosion (2021–2025). Starting in 2021, the market expanded rapidly, with NEV passenger car sales surging from 1.36 million units in 2020 to approximately 16 million units in 2025. Looking ahead to the “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan” period and beyond to 2040, Ouyang outlined three key technological directions: end-to-end safety, all-climate ultra-fast charging and rapid energy replenishment, and high-efficiency operation across all driving conditions. He expressed caution regarding solid-state batteries, noting that all-solid-state batteries still face fundamental scientific challenges—such as interfacial side reactions—and urged companies to avoid using them as marketing gimmicks. He forecast that the market penetration rate of NEV passenger cars will exceed 70% by 2030, surpass 80% by 2035, and stabilize above 80% by 2040. During this period, the ratio of BEVs to PHEVs/range-extended vehicles is expected to shift from 7:3 in 2030 to 9:1 by 2040. Meanwhile, the market share of new energy commercial vehicles is projected to exceed 70% by 2040, with total NEV ownership nationwide reaching between 300 million and 380 million units. Furthermore, as the share of renewable energy in power generation continues to rise, the proportion of green electricity consumption is expected to surpass 50% by 2030 and reach 65%–70% by 2035, at which point electric vehicles will truly become “new energy vehicles” in the full sense. Ouyang concluded that future competition will shift from individual technologies to integrated systemic capabilities encompassing safety, energy replenishment, intelligence, and energy integration across the entire value chain.