May Passenger Car Sales Forecast at 1.52 Million Units, with NEVs Accounting for 62.5%

According to the latest survey data, retail sales of passenger vehicles (narrowly defined) in May are expected to reach approximately 1.52 million units, up 9.9% month-over-month. Of this, new energy vehicle (NEV) retail sales are projected at around 950,000 units, an increase of 12.0% month-over-month, representing a penetration rate of approximately 62.5%. Leading automakers—those accounting for over 70% of total market sales—have set average retail targets for May roughly 10% higher than April’s, aligning with typical seasonal patterns. During the May Day holiday period, dealerships primarily focused on order collection. In the first week, daily retail sales averaged 31,000 units; in the second week, post-holiday deliveries surged, lifting daily sales to 51,000 units; by the third week, as orders were progressively fulfilled, the market naturally cooled, with daily sales dropping to 39,000 units; the fourth week maintained a moderate pace, with daily sales expected at 43,000 units; and in the fifth week, driven by end-of-month promotional activities and sales push efforts from manufacturers, daily sales are forecast to reach 77,000 units. During the holiday, automakers boosted consumer interest through new model launches and dealership promotions. However, after the holiday, some time-limited subsidies expired, leading to a decline in foot traffic, resulting in an overall “high early, low later” sales trend. NEVs continued to gain market share due to ramped-up production capacity and accelerated deliveries, while fuel-powered vehicles saw a notable drop in both showroom traffic and orders post-holiday. Although fuel vehicle sales still achieved month-over-month growth thanks to strong early-month momentum, the divergence between NEVs and fuel vehicles has further widened.