All-Solid-State Batteries Near Mass Production, But Cost Remains Key Barrier to Adoption

2026 is widely regarded as the "Year One of Mass Production" for solid-state batteries. Several leading battery manufacturers have already unveiled timelines for all-solid-state battery (ASSB) mass production: CATL plans to achieve small-scale production of sulfide-based ASSBs in 2027 and limited mass production in 2028; BYD also targets small-scale production by 2027; and Gotion High-Tech launched its "Jinshi" ASSB in 2026, boasting an energy density exceeding 400 Wh/kg. Meanwhile, semi-solid-state batteries have already entered large-scale vehicle integration in 2026, with energy densities ranging from 350 to 420 Wh/kg. However, ASSBs have not yet entered widespread commercial application, primarily due to high costs. Current ASSB cell costs range from RMB 1.6 to 2.2 per Wh—three to five times higher than mainstream lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries (RMB 0.39–0.5 per Wh). For a 70 kWh battery pack, this cost difference alone exceeds RMB 80,000, far surpassing consumers’ acceptable premium threshold. The root cause of high costs lies in materials and manufacturing processes. The sulfide-based route is currently the dominant technological pathway, where the electrolyte accounts for 70%–80% of total battery cost—and within that, 70%–80% stems from lithium sulfide material. This implies that lithium sulfide alone contributes approximately 50%–64% of the total battery cost. To reduce expenses, Gotion High-Tech has developed a "gas-liquid-solid tri-phase synthesis method" for lithium sulfide production and plans to commission a kiloton-scale production line in 2026, scaling up to 50,000 tons/year by 2030. The company aims to lower lithium sulfide prices to RMB 500,000/ton and solid electrolytes to RMB 300,000/ton, driving cell costs into the "RMB 1-per-Wh era." Manufacturing challenges are equally significant. Solid electrolytes are highly sensitive to air and moisture, requiring processing in inert atmospheres—resulting in high equipment investment and operational costs. Poor solid-solid interfacial contact necessitates additional processes like high-pressure lamination. Existing liquid-battery production lines cannot be directly repurposed, and due to the lack of standardized technical pathways, specialized equipment remains non-standardized, keeping per-line investment costs elevated. The industry broadly agrees that ASSBs will first find adoption in niche applications where cost sensitivity is low but high energy density and safety are critical—such as eVTOL aircraft and humanoid robots. In 2026, companies have already showcased mass-production-ready products targeting the low-altitude economy, validating a "niche-first, mass-market-later" commercialization strategy. Cost-reduction efforts are advancing on three fronts: 1) **Materials**: Scaling lithium sulfide production to drive down raw material prices; 2) **Manufacturing**: Developing continuous processes (e.g., dry electrode coating, roll-to-roll technology) to boost efficiency and reduce energy consumption; 3) **Equipment**: Promoting domestication and standardization to lower capital expenditure. Moreover, the technology roadmap is gradually converging toward sulfide-based systems, enabling focused resource allocation to accelerate industrialization. Drawing parallels with liquid lithium-ion batteries—which took nearly 30 years to reduce cell costs from dozens of RMB per Wh to around RMB 1/Wh by 2020—the industry expects ASSB costs to fall from the current ~RMB 2/Wh to RMB 1/Wh between 2028 and 2030. The period 2026–2027 will serve as a pilot phase for small-batch demonstrations, primarily targeting premium customized vehicles and emerging applications. By 2028–2029, costs could drop to RMB 1.2–1.5/Wh, enabling penetration into mid-to-high-end passenger vehicles. If raw material price targets are met by around 2030, the "RMB 1-per-Wh era" will officially begin. Currently, ASSBs remain in a critical transition phase—from lab-scale development toward mass production. Coordinated breakthroughs across materials, processes, equipment, and application scenarios will ultimately determine when they can truly enter the mass market.