CATL Chairman Zeng Yuqun: Mass Adoption of All-Solid-State Batteries in Millions of Vehicles by 2030 Unlikely

CATL Chairman Zeng Yuqun recently stated that achieving mass vehicle deployment of all-solid-state batteries at the million-unit scale before 2030 is “highly unlikely.” He noted that current all-solid-state battery technology has only reached Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 4 out of 9, meaning it remains in the early laboratory stage of fundamental principle validation and still faces a long road to mass production and commercialization. Zeng emphasized that all-solid-state batteries confront significant challenges in both performance and cost. Currently, their cell costs range from RMB 1.6 to 2.2 per watt-hour—three to five times higher than lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, which cost RMB 0.39 to 0.5 per watt-hour. For a 70 kWh battery pack, this translates to an additional cost of over RMB 80,000 for the battery alone. Moreover, the issue of poor solid-solid interfacial contact remains unresolved. The industry commonly employs warm isostatic pressing at 6,000 atmospheres, but due to substantial differences in compaction density among cathode, anode, and current collector materials, this process often causes material misalignment and interfacial failure, making it unsuitable for mass production. Zeng advocated viewing technological breakthroughs through an “event-driven” rather than “time-driven” lens, asserting that commercialization will only become feasible once critical scientific and engineering hurdles are overcome. Although several companies have announced solid-state battery production plans—such as CATL targeting limited production of sulfide-based all-solid-state batteries by 2027, BYD having completed automotive-grade validation and built a pilot line, Dongfeng Motor planning semi-solid-state battery mass production in the second half of 2026, and Toyota expecting small-scale production in 2026—the industry widely acknowledges a fundamental gap between “limited production” and “large-scale manufacturing.” Academician Ouyang Minggao of the Chinese Academy of Sciences estimates that large-scale commercialization of all-solid-state batteries will still require three to five years, while Geely believes volume adoption may not occur until around 2030. Industry forecasts suggest global solid-state battery shipments could reach 614.1 GWh by 2030, accounting for approximately 10% of total lithium-ion battery shipments. However, all-solid-state batteries remain at TRL 4, and industrialization hinges on overcoming key barriers including convergence of manufacturing processes, improvement of mass-production yield rates, and cost reduction of core materials.