Bloomberg NEF Cuts Global EV Demand Forecast Again Amid U.S. Policy Shift and Market Contraction

BloombergNEF’s latest Electric Vehicle Outlook report states that it has downgraded its global EV demand forecast for the second consecutive year, citing the U.S. government's rollback of multiple EV support policies. The report now projects that EVs will account for just 17% of U.S. passenger vehicle sales by 2030—significantly lower than its previous forecasts of 27% (as projected in 2024) and an earlier estimate of 48%. Weaker demand in the U.S. is also dragging down the global EV transition. BloombergNEF now expects global electric passenger vehicle sales to reach 35.6 million units by 2030, approximately 3.4 million fewer than its projection last year. During the Trump administration, U.S. policymakers significantly relaxed fuel economy standards, eliminated California’s mandatory EV sales quotas, and repealed the $7,500 federal tax credit per EV. Additionally, increased tariffs and rising global trade barriers have further undermined automakers’ ability to compete in advancing electrification in the U.S. market. As a result, numerous automakers have adjusted their electrification strategies over the past year. Data shows that at least 27 existing or upcoming EV models have been scaled back, discontinued, or delayed. Companies including Stellantis, Ford, General Motors, and Honda have collectively reported around $64 billion in losses from their EV operations. China remains the world’s largest EV market, accounting for approximately 62% of global EV sales in 2024. However, due to adjustments in domestic subsidy policies, market growth is expected to slow, with annual sales projected to rise by about 10%—lower than the anticipated 16% growth in 2025 and the 39% surge seen in 2024.