June Passenger Car Retail Sales Expected at 1.65M Units, with NEV Share Hitting 63.6%

Retail sales of passenger vehicles (narrow definition) in June are expected to reach approximately 1.65 million units, up 9.3% month-over-month. Of this, new energy vehicle (NEV) retail sales are projected at around 1.05 million units, an increase of 10.5% month-over-month, representing a penetration rate of approximately 63.6%. In May, retail sales of passenger vehicles (narrow definition) totaled 1.51 million units, down 22.1% year-over-year but up 9.6% month-over-month. Specifically, internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle sales reached 560,000 units, down 38.5% year-over-year and up 5.1% month-over-month, while NEV sales stood at 950,000 units, down 7.5% year-over-year but up 12.4% month-over-month, with a penetration rate of 62.9%. In the first week of June, daily average retail sales were only about 33,000 units due to demand exhaustion caused by automakers’ aggressive end-of-May sales push, resulting in weak market performance. In the second week, daily average sales rebounded to 44,000 units as the “618” promotional campaign kicked off. The third week saw heightened market activity driven by the Dragon Boat Festival holiday and intensified manufacturer promotions; however, with only four working days, the focus was primarily on order collection, and daily average retail sales are estimated at 57,000 units. The fourth week (June 22–30), a full post-holiday week combined with automakers’ mid-year sales push, is expected to see daily average retail sales reach 83,000 units. Although June is not traditionally a peak sales season and consumer sentiment remains cautious—keeping overall demand in a bottoming-out recovery phase—the performance divergence between NEVs and ICE vehicles is evident. The launch of multiple new NEV models has driven growth in prospective customers and orders, whereas ICE vehicle demand remains weak amid high fuel prices, relying mainly on promotions to generate marginal sales increases.